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Who will succeed Pope Francis? Possible front-runners from Asia, Africa, Europe


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Pope Francis left a legacy as a reformist and a staunch advocate for the marginalized, especially immigrants and the poor.

While continuing to fight for the underprivileged may come as a natural endeavor for his successor, the Catholic Church is not known for welcoming change, and Francis faced resistance to his more progressive positions on social issues.

Among the key questions in the vote for the next pope will be whether he’ll aim to continue Francis’ drive toward inclusivity or guide the church in a conservative direction in matters such as divorced Catholics, LGBTQ+ acceptance, women’s role in the clergy and the handling of sexual abuse cases.

Here’s a look at some of the leading names being circulated as candidates to become the new pope in the conclave that begins May 7, with the proviso that favorites don’t typically end up getting the nod, leading to the expression, “In pope, out cardinal.’’

Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 67

Tagle is a liberal Filipino with a commitment to social justice that has prompted some to call him the “Asian Francis.” He actually prefers to go by his regular nickname, Chito.

Tagle has more than 40 years in the priesthood despite his relative youth and became the archbishop of Manila, capital city of the Philippines, in 2011. Two years later he was regarded as a candidate to replace Pope Benedict XVI – who had made him a cardinal in 2012 – before Francis was chosen.

Francis provided Tagle the opportunity to gain experience in the Vatican when he transferred him from Manila in 2019 and picked him to lead the church’s missionary arm. Tagle, who earned a doctorate in theology from the Catholic University of America in Washington, D.C., is fluent in English and Italian in addition to his native Tagalog. Hailing from a continent where Catholicism has been expanding rapidly could give him an edge.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70

There hasn’t been an Italian pope since the untimely death of John Paul I in 1978, which may not seem that long a time until considering Italians occupied the papacy for the 455 years until that point.

Parolin, a longtime Vatican diplomat, would represent a return to that tradition but without embracing a conservative doctrine. He served as Francis’ secretary of state – somewhat like a deputy pope – since 2013 and is regarded as a moderate.

Parolin’s experience in international affairs includes a stint as the Vatican’s ambassador to Venezuela starting in 2009 and serving as the main architect of the Vatican’s rapprochement with China and Vietnam.

Cardinal Peter Erdo, 72

A conservative theologian from Hungary, Erdo was also a contender for the post that went to Francis in 2013. But they didn’t openly clash despite their different philosophies, and Erdo’s pragmatism and alliances in the progressive camp could make him an acceptable compromise candidate.

He rose quickly in the church ranks and was named a cardinal in 2003 at age 51, making him the youngest member of the College of Cardinals until 2010. A two-time president of the Council of Bishops Conferences of Europe, Erdo is considered a leader in the church’s drive to revive the Catholic faith in advanced secular countries.

Erdo is close with the government of Hungarian strongman Viktor Orban. That and his conservative credentials amid a conclave dominated by cardinal electors chosen by Francis could present a big hurdle for Erdo’s path toward the papacy.

Cardinal Peter Turkson, 76

A native of Ghana who has long pushed for social justice, Turkson could become the first African pope in more than 1,500 years, at a time when the Catholic Church has made big strides in the continent.

Turkson, now a Vatican official, was named a cardinal by Pope John Paul II in 2003 at age 55 and appointed to lead the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace by Pope Benedict XVI six years later. His strong credentials on issues of poverty and climate change are likely to appeal to Francis allies, but Turkson leans conservative on other matters, such as homosexuality and contraception.

“I believe it would be very natural to choose someone from Africa, Asia or in any case from those parts of the world where the church is, in some way, more alive, more dynamic, and with more of a future,’’ Swedish Cardinal Anders Arborelius told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, 69

A favorite of Pope Francis, who named him cardinal in 2019, Zuppi has shown a similar inclination toward humility, mingling with the people, standing up for the poor and opening to doors to the LGBTQ+ community.

As the archbishop of Bologna for nearly 10 years, Zuppi has been known on occasion to eschew an official car for a bicycle while traversing the city’s streets. “Father Matteo,’’ as he prefers to be called, has also traveled to meet high-profile world leaders like former President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Considering the Italian media has referred to him as the “Italian Bergoglio,’’ Zuppi may struggle getting support from conservatives. His main black mark among progressives has been the slow response to the sexual abuse scandal from the Italian Catholic Church, which he has led since 2022.

Cardinal Joseph Tobin, 72

Could the next pope be from − New Jersey? Tobin, a progressive and archbishop of Newark, is among the 10 Americans who’ll have a vote in the conclave. He’s also among those papal watchers believe may have a chance to be elected pope.

The National Catholic Reporter noted the 72-year-old’s background is impressive and largely built outside the United States, a fact that might set at ease any concerns about a pope from a global superpower. Tobin was close to Pope Francis, whom he met in 2005 and who elevated him to cardinal in 2016. A Detroit native and onetime auto mechanic, Tobin is a member of the Redemptorists, an order known for its work with the poor, immigrants and the “spiritually abandoned.” He rose through the ranks before leading the order.

Tobin, the National Catholic Reporter noted, was among Francis’ staunchest supporters among American bishops, a man whose “affable style and easy humor” helped win friends even among ideological opponents. He’s frequently in Rome, so he has a familiarity with how the Vatican works and has been known to use the city’s public transit system to get around.

Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline, 66

A native of Algeria, Aveline has been described as Pope Francis’ favorite bishop according to the Catholic Herald. He comes from a family of refugees who settled in the French port city of Marseille in 1965. Aveline would eventually become archbishop of that city.

A favorite of progressives who bears some physical resemblance to another papal reformer, John XXIV, he’s also a pragmatist who understands how cities can struggle to feed, house and assimilate refugees and immigrants and has won the respect of some of France’s traditionalist Catholics for his efforts to protect their interests.

His work in Marseille, a city that’s a microcosm of many of the world’s challenges, including migration, climate change, income inequality and interfaith clashes, may help bolster his chances of leading the church through a host of secular problems.

Cardinal Angelo Scola, 83

The Archbishop Emeritus of Milan, a city near the village where he was born, Scola is too old at 83 to have a vote in the papal conclave. Still, he’s seen as one of the contenders for pope. Elevated to the role of bishop by John Paul II, Scola founded the Oasis International Foundation, which fosters dialogue and understanding between Christians and Muslims, focusing on Christian minorities living in Muslim countries.

He was among the favorites to succeed Pope Benedict XVI when he resigned in 2013, and he’s long been known as a writer and a scholar whose work was highlighted by Pope Francis himself in a piece published posthumously in Vatican News.

Cardinal Mario Grech, 68

Grech is a native of Malta who’s currently secretary general of the Synod of Bishops, a role that’s put him in the center of the ongoing and controversial Synod of Synodality, which would shape the future direction of the Catholic Church.

Supporters believe the 68-year-old has helped lead the charge toward a more inclusive and interactive approach to church governance, while others say he’s undermining the hierarchy of the church and its leaders. He announced in March a new phase in the synod process that would bring bishops, clergy, religious and lay people together to propose ideas for the church’s future − instead of the traditional synod of bishops.

Once known as a social conservative, Grech’s views have evolved through the years, and he’s defended Pope Francis’ inclusion of LGBTQ people and support for immigrants and refugees in Europe.

Cardinal Juan Jose Omella, 79

The Archbishop of Barcelona, Omella believes lay people can play a larger role in the church’s eucharistic and liturgical observances and has been an outspoken critic of Spain’s efforts to reform its abortion laws. He’s also drawn fire for his response to reports of sexual abuse by Spain’s Catholic clergy, accusing Spanish media of trying to mislead the public about the scope of the scandal, even while asking forgiveness from those who’ve been impacted.

Seen as affable and unpretentious, Omella lives humbly in the same way Pope Francis did, promoting social justice and advocating for a more compassionate and inclusive church. He worked for 16 years with Spain’s Manos Unidas, which battles famine, disease and poverty in developing nations.

Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60

Pizzaballa’s worldview has been influenced by his upbringing in rural part of Northern Italy. The 60-year-old patriarch of Jerusalem enjoyed “a simple country life,” where the local priest would visit on a bicycle and where Pizzaballa decided early in life that he wanted to become a priest as well.

He arrived in Jerusalem as a young priest in 1990, in the midst of one of the region’s many fierce conflicts. He studied at Hebrew University and was able to absorb non-Christian points of view − and learn the Hebrew language. He earned a reputation as a trusted emissary between the Christian, Muslim and Jewish communities in the Holy Land during his many years there, and he is the first cardinal to reside in Israel.

In the wake of the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas and the subsequent Israeli assault on Gaza, Pizzaballa called for prayer and even offered himself as a hostage in exchange for the release of children held hostage by Hamas. He’s continued to call for peace, condemning Hamas’ terror campaign as well as the civilian death toll in Gaza.

His pastoral positions, though, are not well known, as he’s rarely spoken out on some of the church’s hot button issues. He’s known as someone open to the modern world while still maintaining church orthodoxy and tradition.

Contributing: Reuters



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