Morning opening: Building up to Super Sunday
Jakub Krupa
Good morning, or dzień dobry, from Warsaw, Poland, where 13 presidential candidates are up very early to make the most of the last day before the “electoral silence” kicks in ahead of this Sunday’s first round of the presidential vote.
With leading contenders hitting the campaign trail around 6am local time today, it’s going to be a long day ahead for them as they hope to convince some undecided voters in what looks like an increasingly tight race.
The frontrunner, Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, popped in to a bakery in Myśliborz, while his main rival, conservative Karol Nawrocki, went to say hi to miners. You get the idea.
I have spent the last few days here talking to voters and attending rallies by candidates ranging from far-left to far-right, and I will bring you some of what I saw and heard today and over the weekend.
The candidates have only until midnight to campaign, and they want to make every minute count.
I will bring you more updates on this throughout the day, as we build up to Super Sunday with elections not only in Poland, with Portugal set to choose its next government and a super close presidential run-off in Romania.
But we will also keep an eye on the European Political Community summit in Tirana, Albania, where key European leaders are expected to talk about the future of the continent. Britain’s Starmer, Germany’s Merz, France’s Macron, Turkey’s Erdogan, Poland’s Tusk, and EU’s von der Leyen and Costa are all there.
I will bring you all the key updates throughout the day.
It’s Friday, 16 May 2025, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
Good morning.
Key events
Meet the key players – Poland
Let’s take a quick look at the latest polls in Poland, focusing on the two leading contenders – centrist Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski of the ruling Civic Coalition and his conservative rival, Karol Nawrocki, formally independent, but endorsed by the populist-nationalist Law and Justice party that ran the country between 2015 and 2023.
Remember: it’s the first round vote this Sunday, meaning that unless someone gets over 50% (which they won’t get), the top two go through to the run-off in two weeks’ time.
Very unusually for Poland, it looks likely they could come at under 60% in combined vote share this year – way below the 70-80% in previous elections, showing the levels of frustration with both parties that dominated the country’s political landscape over the last 20 years.
This creates more space for other candidates, including libertarian far-right Confederation’s Sławomir Mentzen, who even briefly challenged Nawrocki to second, but has faded in the last few weeks.
Outside the top 3, you will see a close battle for the fourth between the surging Adrian Zandberg of the leftist Razem (Together) party, centre-right Szymon Hołownia of Poland 2025, and Magdalena Biejat of the New Left (Nowa Lewica), the left wing of the ruling coalition. They are all polling somewhere between 5 and 8%, and their endorsements could play a significant role in the run-off.
The full 13-name lineup also features some fringe figures such as a nationalist far-right leader Grzegorz Braun, under probe for putting out Hanukah candles in the Polish parliament with a fire extinguisher and a post-communist left veteran Joanna Senyszyn.
Ukraine dominates headlines in Europe
Before we dive into Poland, Portugal and Romania any further, let me bring you some headline updates from across Europe, with lots of understandable focus on Ukraine –
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Volodymyr Zelenskyy has sent a delegation to Istanbul for peace talks with Russia, paving the way for the first direct negotiations between the two countries since March 2022 – although Washington has warned that no breakthrough is likely unless Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin agree to meet.
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EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said this morning that Russia was “clearly” not working for peace with Ukraine, as she urged leaders attending the European Political Community summit in Albania to ramp up the pressure on Russia to maintain its “political isolation.”
You can follow our separate live blog on Ukraine here:
Morning opening: Building up to Super Sunday
Jakub Krupa
Good morning, or dzień dobry, from Warsaw, Poland, where 13 presidential candidates are up very early to make the most of the last day before the “electoral silence” kicks in ahead of this Sunday’s first round of the presidential vote.
With leading contenders hitting the campaign trail around 6am local time today, it’s going to be a long day ahead for them as they hope to convince some undecided voters in what looks like an increasingly tight race.
The frontrunner, Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, popped in to a bakery in Myśliborz, while his main rival, conservative Karol Nawrocki, went to say hi to miners. You get the idea.
I have spent the last few days here talking to voters and attending rallies by candidates ranging from far-left to far-right, and I will bring you some of what I saw and heard today and over the weekend.
The candidates have only until midnight to campaign, and they want to make every minute count.
I will bring you more updates on this throughout the day, as we build up to Super Sunday with elections not only in Poland, with Portugal set to choose its next government and a super close presidential run-off in Romania.
But we will also keep an eye on the European Political Community summit in Tirana, Albania, where key European leaders are expected to talk about the future of the continent. Britain’s Starmer, Germany’s Merz, France’s Macron, Turkey’s Erdogan, Poland’s Tusk, and EU’s von der Leyen and Costa are all there.
I will bring you all the key updates throughout the day.
It’s Friday, 16 May 2025, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
Good morning.
