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The UK’s general election takes place on Thursday, in the first December election since 1923. If Brexit wasn’t enough for the nation to contend with, terrible weather conditions have been forecast for December 12.
The Met Office has reported “unsettled” and “very windy” weather in its outlook for next week.
The weather agency adds temperatures are likely to fall below average, which increases the chance of snow on the ground on election day.
There is a “risk of wintry showers further north and a low risk of snow along northern edges of rain bands”, the Met Office says.
Some frost and freezing fog is also possible at times, mainly across northern regions.
READ MORE: Winter election will not halt Express voters from heading to polls
The tipping point, that is the age at which a voter is more likely to have voted Conservative than Labour, was 47 at the end of the 2019 election – up from 34 at the start of the campaign.
One academic study on the effects of weather and temperature on voter behaviour has shown that wintry conditions can have an effect.
A 2017 study led by the Belgian University of Ghent and published in the ‘Frontiers of Psychology’ journal looking at voter behaviours and temperature in US elections.
The research found for each increase of 1C (1.8F), voter turnout increased by 0.14 percent.
Researchers in that study claimed that, based on their model, an increase of only 1C would have made Al Gore president rather than George W. Bush in the 2000 presidential race.
However, some experts are debunking the theory that weather matters that much.
Stephen Fisher, associate professor in Political Sociology at the University of Oxford told CNBC that the weather “is unlikely to be a serious factor affecting turnout, or the outcome, on December 12.”
Mr Fisher, whose work looks at political attitudes and behaviour, added: “While there is research showing that turnout at local elections has been sensitive to weather conditions, there’s no correlation at the national level for general elections.”
According to John Curtice, a politics professor at the University of Strathclyde and top polling expert, data shows cold weather has not deterred voters in the past.
In fact, Mr Curtice told CNBC the highest ever turnout in a post-war election was seen in a winter election.
He said: “We obviously don’t have much experience of winter elections but we have had two at the back of winter, in February 1974 when turnout was almost 79 percent, six (percentage) points up from 1970, and the highest ever turnout in the post-war period was in February 1950 when the turnout was almost 84 percent.
“So there’s limited evidence and the evidence we have suggests it’s not an issue.
As for the shorter days, Curtice noted that “December is dark but it’s not the coldest or darkest month” with January and February often worse.
Will it snow on election day?
According to bookies Ladbrokes, the UK is odds on at 10/11 to see snow on election day.
Ladbrokes spokesman Alex Apati said: “Temperatures are continuing to drop and with things looking frosty on the political front, we could well see snow on Thursday.
“December is shaping up to be a bitter one and the odds suggest it could, in fact, be the coldest ever.”
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