Top MPs battling to retain their seats as General Election campaign hots up

A poll has suggested a number of big-name MPs are set to lose their seat in the General Election.

The anticipated ‘MRP’ survey from YouGov was released yesterday, showing Labour could be hit hard in the North and Midlands.

It also predicted a number of well-known MPs, such as Anna Soubry and Zac Goldsmith, face a battle to retain their seas.

Independent Anna Soubry could lose her seat to the Tories.

Soubry deflected from the Conservatives earlier this year and while she is currently the best performing candidate of three standing for the Independent Group for Change UK, she remains third in the polls for her seat in Broxtowe, Nottinghamshire.

Independent MP Dominic Grieve has also been found to be a long way off winning his seat in Beaconsfield and could lose this to the Conservatives.

Formerly a Conservative himself, Grieve has this week slammed Boris Johnson and the Conservative party over “dishonest’ behaviour.

Dominic Grieve MP could lose his Independent seat to the Conservatives

Asked by talkRADIO’s Julia Hartley-Brewer whether Grieve was “comfortable” that his campaigning as an Independent could be leading to a hung parliament, he said: “Nothing sits particularly comfortably. We’re between the devil and the deep blue sea.”

Tory environment minister Zac Goldsmith also looks set to lose his Richmond Park seat to the pro-EU Lib Dems.

Goldsmith, a Brexiteer in the heart of Remain-leaning London, won the seat in the 2017 snap election with a majority of just 45 votes.

Goldsmith had previously been the MP for Richmond Park between 2010 and 2016, but he resigned in protest of the government’s decision to back a third runway at Heathrow. He stood as an independent in the resulting by-election but lost to Lib Dem Sarah Olney.

He is the only Cabinet minister predicted to lose his seat.

Environment minister Zac Goldsmith could lose his Richmond Park seat to the Lib Dems

Labour’s Tom Watson gave up his seat in West Bromwich East – which is currently on a 9% Tory swing

In May 2016 Goldsmith ran for London Mayor, but lost the election to Labour candidate Sadiq Khan .

The Conservatives could also pick up Tom Watson’s empty seat in West Bromwich East – which is on a 9% swing.

YouGov’s ‘MRP’ poll  for The Times  was the first to accurately predict a hung Parliament in the 2017 election.

A seat-by-seat analysis by the company showed the Tories would win 359 seats,  Labour  211, the  SNP  43 and the Lib Dems 17 if the election were held today.

The result suggested that Mr Johnson’s party would make gains at the expense of Labour in some of its heartland seats – many of them Leave-voting – in the Midlands and North, winning 42 more seats than in 2017.

The MPR suggests Labour would lose 51 seats overall, taking 32% of the vote. And in Scotland, they would hang onto just two seats, down from seven.

However, champagne corks were not popping in Tory HQ amid fears that the substantial lead could encourage complacency among Tory supporters – and encourage wavering voters to back Labour in the knowledge Mr Corbyn would not end up in No 10.

MRP YouGov poll
All the seats expected to change hands, according to the MRP YouGov predictions

Read More

General election 2019

Election analysts found that in almost 70 of the seats in the YouGov poll of 100,000 people, Labour and the Tories were within just five points of each other, with another two weeks to go in the election and  Donald Trump  arriving in town for the Nato summit next week.

Commenting on the research, Chris Curtis, YouGov’s political research manager, said: “YouGov’s official election MRP model currently shows the Tories with a comfortable majority with almost all of those coming at the expense of Labour in the North and Midlands.

“As expected, the key thing deciding the extent to which each of these seats is moving against Labour are how that seat voted in the European Union referendum. In the seats that voted most strongly to Leave in 2016 (60% or more in favour of departing the EU), the swing to the Conservatives is over 6%.

“This is allowing the Tories to overturn quite substantial majorities in places like West Bromwich East, the seat held until recently by Tom Watson, and Don Valley, the seat currently held by Caroline Flint.”


Leave a Reply

This website uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you accept our use of cookies.  Learn more