education

Students who have unconditional offers more likely to quit

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Students who go to university after receiving an unconditional offer before their A-level results are more likely to drop out in their first year, research shows.

Analysis by the Office for Students (OfS), the universities regulator, found that the dropout rate was 10% higher for students who accepted unconditional offers than would be expected had they received conditional offers.

Traditionally, universities offer places subject to the applicant achieving the required A-level results. In recent years, however, there has been a huge increase in unconditional offers, which guarantee a place regardless of results.

According to the OfS analysis, in 2012 one in every 100 18-year-olds in England received an offer with an unconditional element, and by 2018 the proportion had gone up to more than one in three.

Critics are particularly concerned about so-called conditional unconditional offers, by which a university guarantees a student a place regardless of A-level results but only if they select the institution as their first option. The government has accused universities of unacceptable pressure-selling tactics.

The OfS said its analysis discounted factors linked to dropout rates such as what subject a student studied, what university they were at and demographics.

It said if the pattern persisted, more than 200 students a year could drop out who otherwise would have been expected to continue.

Nicola Dandridge, the OfS chief executive, said: “We already know that students who receive an unconditional offer are more likely to miss their predicted grades at school. It is a cause of real concern that they are also more likely to drop out of university once they get there.”

Since a cap on student numbers was lifted, universities have been free to recruit as many students as they wish. The number of 18-year-olds in the UK population is falling and some institutions are struggling to fill spaces.

“We have always been clear that some unconditional offers are necessary and in a student’s interests,” said Dandridge. “But many of them are not. Although it is up to universities to decide who to admit and how, they must take responsibility for the impact of those decisions and provide the right support for all students to be successful – especially if the offer they receive makes them less likely to do well at school.”

The University and College Union, which represents lecturers and other university staff, said the OfS findings reinforced the need for urgent reform of the admissions system. “Universities scrabbling to attract students with unconditional offers are too often focused on the bottom line rather than student interests,” said the union’s general secretary, Jo Grady.

“These latest figures show that many students are ill-served by the current admissions system and that there is a real need for urgent reform. A move to post-qualification admissions, where students receive offers after they get their results, would be much fairer to students.”

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