Paths to US election victory: what Trump and Biden need to win


Paths to victory remain in the US presidential race for both Donald Trump and Joe Biden, but Biden has more ways to win and appears to be running stronger state to state, based on the places – cities, mainly – where large absentee votes have yet to be counted.

Biden leads the electoral college vote tally 264-214 after he was declared the winner in Michigan and Wisconsin on Wednesday and Trump gained one vote in Maine. Adding Alaska for Trump – which had not been called but where the result is not in doubt – gives the president 217.


From there, four states remained to be called as Wednesday evening approached in the US: Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.

Trump’s paths

For Trump to find the 53 electoral votes he needs, he would need to win Pennsylvania, plus all three other states.

But a huge Democratic vote share remained to be tallied in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, meaning Trump could have difficulty hanging on to a narrow lead gained elsewhere in the state.

Biden’s paths

Biden has more paths to find his remaining six electoral votes. One path lay through Pennsylvania, which would net 20 votes.

Without Pennsylvania, Biden could win by winning Nevada, where he held a clear but narrow lead. A Biden victory in either of the two reddest states in the mix – Georgia or North Carolina – would almost certainly foretell wins elsewhere and a Biden victory.



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