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A no-deal Brexit would have “immediate and severe consequences” for Northern Ireland and put 40,000 jobs at risk in the country, according to a report from the Stormont government’s Department for the Economy.
Many jobs could “disappear almost overnight, especially in industries such as agri-food and haulage”, the report warned.
Added to this, the report’s authors state that Northern Ireland faces a broad range of challenges from a disorderly exit that make it very difficult to predict exactly how large impact might be.
Additional tariffs and non-tariff barriers will mean that whatever action the Irish government and the EU take, many businesses in Northern Ireland will no longer be able to export to the Republic, the Department for the Economy said.
It forecasts that imposing EU tariffs could cut Northern Irish exports to Ireland by 11 per cent while non-tariff barriers could prompt a further decline of 19 per cent, equating to a total fall in exports of up to £180m.
1/12 Derry, Londonderry
A garage door displaying unionism, bolted shut, like a visual representation of Brexit Britain, locked to outsiders, safeguarding what’s inside
Richard Morgan/The Independent
2/12 Derry, Londonderry
Rossville Street, the site of Bloody Sunday, where messages demand a severance with England. From this perspective, Britain is England in sheep’s clothing, the real empire, the centre of colonial power
Richard Morgan/The Independent
3/12 Bangor
A political message in paint not yet dry, still forming, setting, adjusting, or in old paint finally eroding, melting away
Richard Morgan/The Independent
4/12 Bangor
Moral judgement frames a residential view. The message seeks to make everybody involved in the religious narrative: those who don’t believe are those most in debt
Richard Morgan/The Independent
5/12 Castlerock
The beach is sparse and almost empty, but covered in footprints. The shower is designed to wash off sand, and a mysterious border cuts a divide through the same sand
Richard Morgan/The Independent
6/12 Belfast
Two attempts to affect and care for the body. One stimulated by vanity and social norms and narratives of beauty, the other by a need to keep warm in the winter night
Richard Morgan/The Independent
7/12 Belfast
The gate to an unclaimed piece of land, where nothing is being built, where no project is in the making, where a sign demands the creation of something new
Richard Morgan/The Independent
8/12 Derry, Londonderry
Under a motorway bridge a woman’s face stares, auburn and red-lipped, her skin tattooed with support for the IRA and a message of hostility to advocates of the Social Investment Fund
Richard Morgan/The Independent
9/12 Derry, Londonderry
The Fountain Murals, where the curbs and the lampposts are painted the red, white, and blue of the Union Flag. A boy walks past in the same colours, fitting the scene, camouflaged
Richard Morgan/The Independent
10/12 Coleraine
A public slandering by the football fields, for all to see or ignore. I wonder if it’s for the police or for the community
Richard Morgan/The Independent
11/12 Belfast
A tattoo parlour, where the artist has downed tools, momentarily, bringing poise to the scene, which looks like a place of mourning, not a site of creation
Richard Morgan/The Independent
12/12 Derry, Londonderry
A barrier of grey protects the contents of this shop, guarding it from the streets outside, but it cannot conceal it completely, and the colours of lust and desire and temptation cut through
Richard Morgan/The Independent
1/12 Derry, Londonderry
A garage door displaying unionism, bolted shut, like a visual representation of Brexit Britain, locked to outsiders, safeguarding what’s inside
Richard Morgan/The Independent
2/12 Derry, Londonderry
Rossville Street, the site of Bloody Sunday, where messages demand a severance with England. From this perspective, Britain is England in sheep’s clothing, the real empire, the centre of colonial power
Richard Morgan/The Independent
3/12 Bangor
A political message in paint not yet dry, still forming, setting, adjusting, or in old paint finally eroding, melting away
Richard Morgan/The Independent
4/12 Bangor
Moral judgement frames a residential view. The message seeks to make everybody involved in the religious narrative: those who don’t believe are those most in debt
Richard Morgan/The Independent
5/12 Castlerock
The beach is sparse and almost empty, but covered in footprints. The shower is designed to wash off sand, and a mysterious border cuts a divide through the same sand
Richard Morgan/The Independent
6/12 Belfast
Two attempts to affect and care for the body. One stimulated by vanity and social norms and narratives of beauty, the other by a need to keep warm in the winter night
Richard Morgan/The Independent
7/12 Belfast
The gate to an unclaimed piece of land, where nothing is being built, where no project is in the making, where a sign demands the creation of something new
Richard Morgan/The Independent
8/12 Derry, Londonderry
Under a motorway bridge a woman’s face stares, auburn and red-lipped, her skin tattooed with support for the IRA and a message of hostility to advocates of the Social Investment Fund
Richard Morgan/The Independent
9/12 Derry, Londonderry
The Fountain Murals, where the curbs and the lampposts are painted the red, white, and blue of the Union Flag. A boy walks past in the same colours, fitting the scene, camouflaged
Richard Morgan/The Independent
10/12 Coleraine
A public slandering by the football fields, for all to see or ignore. I wonder if it’s for the police or for the community
Richard Morgan/The Independent
11/12 Belfast
A tattoo parlour, where the artist has downed tools, momentarily, bringing poise to the scene, which looks like a place of mourning, not a site of creation
Richard Morgan/The Independent
12/12 Derry, Londonderry
A barrier of grey protects the contents of this shop, guarding it from the streets outside, but it cannot conceal it completely, and the colours of lust and desire and temptation cut through
Richard Morgan/The Independent
Meanwhile, businesses in Northern Ireland would be vulnerable to cheap imports from outside the EU which are currently subject to high tariffs. Under World Trade Organisation rules, which would come into effect after a no-deal Brexit, these barriers would be much lower.
The risk is particularly acute for farmers and food businesses because prices of certain commodities such as beef are far lower in some non-EU countries.
Northern Irish services businesses would face a 14.5 per cent rise in the cost of doing business with Ireland, the research suggests, with IT firms facing a particularly sharp 24 per cent increase. Consumers will also suffer as the pound loses value, making imports more expensive.
The report reads: “At a time when local industry would be facing steep tariffs on exports to the EU, making exports in many cases unviable, it would be difficult to cope with increased competition in NI and GB markets because of an inflow of cheaper imports from countries with lower production costs.
“This places a twin pressure on NI’s most important markets, leaving businesses with limited option and the NI economy facing an absolute decline in exports and external sales.”
Both candidates to become the next prime minister have said that they would be willing to take the UK out of the EU without a deal on 31 October.
Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt have both insisted that they can ensure there will be no hard Irish border with customs checks after Brexit.
Mr Johnson has said he backs a “high-tech” solution to the Irish border problem but his team has presented few details of how it might work and admitted last month it has not idea of the cost.
In the Conservative leadership debate on Monday night, Mr Hunt also backed a technological solution. “Not new technology, but technology that already exists,“ he said.
The EU has said that no such solution is in place at any border the trading bloc has with any other third country and that, in fact, the required technology does not exist.
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