Home politics How Joe Biden could win US election from here as he takes lead in key states

How Joe Biden could win US election from here as he takes lead in key states

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How Joe Biden could win US election from here as he takes lead in key states


The US election is still too close to call in a bitter night of the race to choose the next President.

But in the last few hours, the results dripping have started to reveal a path to power for Democrat Joe Biden.

While it’s too early to call, getting three more states – all leaning blue – would push Biden over the line to 270 electoral votes.

Networks say he’s already won Arizona, despite Donald Trump ’s team insisting the opposite, taking him to 238.

Now the Democrat’s team believe he is projected to win in Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada, giving him what they call a “clear path to victory”.

Between them those three states have 32 Electoral College votes – enough to exactly reach the threshold of 270 Biden needs to get into the White House.



Donald Trump is claiming remaining ballots should not be counted

His team also believe he could potentially win Pennsylvania, which would bring his Electoral College total to 290.

And they claim he still stands a chance against Trump, albeit much slimmer, in Georgia and North Carolina.

They also say he’s won more than 50% of the popular vote, not that this matters – Hillary Clinton won that in 2016 and lost the Presidency.

All this has prompted outrage from Donald Trump, who was leading in early counting before he went to bed.

The bitter President is now threatening a Supreme Court challenge saying: “We want all voting to stop”.

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He claims there is something “very strange” about mail-in and absentee ballots which come in later favouring the Democrats.

But those ballots are legal and legitimate, were in many cases expected to lean blue, and the President has provided no evidence of mass fraud.

So while we can’t be confident yet, how can Joe Biden win from here? We take you through the maths.

If he’s got Arizona, he’s on 238 Electoral College votes



There are still some outstanding questions about the result in Arizona

Fox News called Arizona for the Democratic challenger – although there are last-minute jitters about the result.

Results had suggested that with more than 98% of ballots counted, Biden was on 51% to Trump’s 48%.

This would make the state – which has 11 Electoral College votes – the first major “flip” from red to blue of the night.

But the New York Times corrected its research after an error, saying actually only 86% of the vote had been counted.

That means there is more for Trump to play for than people thought.

Trump’s campaign insisted he could still win Arizona.

If it has gone to Biden, that would take him to 238 of the 270 Electoral College votes he needs for the White House.

Meanwhile Trump is sitting on 213 – or 216 if you assume Alaska (always slow to report) is going to go his way.

Wisconsin could take him to 248 votes



Donald Trump would not be happy

Donald Trump was ahead in early voting but Joe Biden has steadily slipped into the lead.

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With 97% of votes counted, the Democrat had a lead of 0.7 points – just over 20,000 ballots – by 4pm GMT.

The state said it was continuing counting from 11am GMT Wednesday.

Joe Biden’s team told journalists they expected results to finish on Wednesday afternoon UK time and be called for him.

Wisconsin has 10 Electoral College votes, so that’d take Joe Biden to 248.

Michigan could then take him to 264



Joe Biden’s team claimed most of the remaining votes in Michigan were in blue-leaning areas

Again, Trump was ahead in early counting in the ‘rust belt’ state which includes Detroit – he won the state by one point in 2016.

But Biden pulled ahead in later counting. With 90% of votes counted he was just 0.2 points ahead.

That suggests there’s all to play for.

But Biden’s team claimed many of the 200,000 outstanding ballots were in heavily Democrat areas.

They claimed they expected a call for Biden on Wednesday. With 16 votes that’d take him to 264 – within spitting distance of the White House.

Nevada could then take him to 270 exactly – but only tomorrow



If so it would torpedo Donald Trump’s chance of the Presidency

With 86% of votes counted, Biden had a 0.6 point lead in a state that includes Las Vegas.

Joe Biden’s team believe he will win the desert state – which with 6 Electoral College votes would take him to 270 exactly.

But we won’t know for a good while yet, and no updates are expected before 5pm Thursday.

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Ballots postmarked by Tuesday will be counted so long as they arrive within seven days after the election.

His team still claim he could get more than 270



It’s all about the maths

A result of 270 exactly would be a historically close Presidential election, just two ahead of Donald Trump.

But Joe Biden’s team also claim there are opportunities for him to win more convincingly.

There are three remaining battleground states where the result is more of a tossup.

Pennsylvania is the biggest, with a whopping 20 Electoral College votes, and had a hefty lead for the Republican.

While the result there will not be known for days and there are millions of ballots left to count, team Biden claim they can “more than overcome” Trump’s 600,000 margin.

Perhaps for this reason, Pennsylvania looks like the biggest target for any legal action from Trump’s team.

The state’s governor has said he will “vigorously defend” against any attempts to attack” the election result.

A fainter hope for Biden comes in the form of Georgia (16 Electoral College votes) and North Carolina (15 votes).

Biden’s team admit the races there are very tight and they may only stand an outside chance of winning. But as of 4pm GMT they have not been called for Trump either.

And finally there’s a single Electoral College vote in Maine, one of the few states not to award all votes to the winner.

Biden has three out of four, and the fourth is yet to be called.





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