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England vs Germany prediction: How will Euro 2020 last-16 match play out today?



England take on Germany in the last 16 of Euro 2020 on Tuesday evening.

The two old rivals are set to meet for the first time in a competitive game since the 2010 World Cup with a place in the tournament quarter-finals the prize.

England topped Group D after opening with a win over Croatia before an underwhelming draw with Scotlandin their second outing. The Three Lions then secured top spot with the win over Czech Republic in the final group stage game. Germany finished second in the dangerous Group F behind France but ahead of Portugal. They lost to the world champions first up before thrashing Portugal in Munich. They twice went behind against group minnows Hungary before a late Leon Goretzka goal finally earned a draw and passage to the knockout phase.

FOLLOW LIVE: Team news, build-up and all the match action as England face Germany at Euro 2020

Gareth Southgate‘s side have impressed in flashes but have struggled for consistency with Raheem Sterling scoring the only two goals of the tournament so far and skipper Harry Kane yet to fire. However, they are the only team at the competition yet to concede a goal and will hope that defensive stability stands them in good stead against a German side who have shown plenty of attacking threat of their own.

Here’s everything you need to know about the last-16 game:

When is the game?

The match takes place on Tuesday 29 June at Wembley Stadium.

Kick-off is 5pm.

What TV channel is it on?

The match will be broadcast live on BBC One.

You will also be able to stream it live on the BBC website and via the BBC iPlayer.

What is the team news?

Mason Mount and Ben Chilwell represent the biggest selection headache for England boss Gareth Southgate. The pair have been in isolation for 10 days following an “interaction” with Chelsea teammate Billy Gilmour following the game with Scotland. Gilmour went on to test positive for Covid-19. Both have been training away from the main group but will be available for selection with their isolation period ending on Monday night. However, it remains to be seen whether Southgate opts for either having been outside of his core group for such an extended period.

Elsewhere, Southgate has a clean bill of health and a full squad to choose from. Defender Harry Maguire, who missed the first two games of the tournament with an ankle injury, came through against Czech Republic unscathed while midfielder Jordan Henderson, out of action for his club side Liverpool since February, also got some valuable minutes under his belt in the last Group D game.

Southgate’s main decision appears to be whether he sticks with the back four that has proved successful thus far or switches to a back three to match up against the Germans’ wing-back system. Attacking midfielders Jack Grealish and Bukayo Saka are both pushing to keep their places after being brought in from the start and impressing against the Czechs. Phil Foden, on a booking and rested last time out, could come back in, however.

Germany are still without defender Lukas Klostermann with a long-term thigh issue but Thomas Muller is set to return from the start after only being fit enough to come on as a substitute against Hungary.

The scorer of the winner in the Group F finale, Leon Goretzka, is pushing to start in midfield and could replace Manchester City’s Ilkay Gundogan alongside Toni Kroos. Versatile Bayern Munich star Joshua Kimmich is set to continue at wing-back with the impressive Robin Gosens on the other flank. Top scorer Kai Havertz will start up front with Serge Gnabry likely to return alongside him in place of Leroy Sane.

Predicted line-ups

England: Pickford; Trippier, Walker, Stones, Maguire, Shaw; Rice, Phillips; Saka, Kane, Sterling

Germany: Neuer; Ginter, Hummels, Rudiger; Kimmich, Goretzka, Kroos, Gosens; Muller, Havertz, Gnabry

What is the head-to-head record?

The two countries have a long footballing rivalry peaking in 1966 when England met West Germany in the World Cup final at Wembley, and Geoff Hurst’s famous but controversial hat-trick, in which his crucial second goal was awarded despite it widely considered to have not crossed the goal-line, sealed the hosts’ one and only World Cup triumph.

That was their first competitive meeting. Their most recent saw Germany emphatically knock England out of the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, winning 4-1 in their round-of-16 showdown which saw another goal-line controversy when Frank Lampard’s strike was not given as a goal despite replays showing it hit the bar and clearly went in.

England’s most recent victory over Germany came in a friendly in 2016, winning 3-2 in a thrilling match having been 2-0 down, with goals from Harry Kane, Jamie Vardy and a 90th-minute Eric Dier header. Their last competitive win over the Germans came in 2001 when Michael Owen scored a hat-trick in a 5-1 thrashing in World Cup qualifying.

England have won only two of the two nations’ seven World Cup or World Cup qualifier meetings, and only one of their four European Championship showdowns. In total, including friendlies and minor tournaments, England have played Germany (or West Germany) 32 times, with the Germans edging the head to head 15 to 13, with four draws.

What are the odds?

England 31/20

Draw 9/4

Germany 2/1

Prediction

Of all the big beasts from Group F that England could have drawn, Germany were the most desirable opponents. Bar any sudden changes in approach, Jogi Low’s side will press and push forward, perhaps with enough force to break through, but will always be at risk of playing into England’s hands. If Gareth Southgate can come up with a plan to nullify Germany’s attack, his players should profit on the break. England 1-0 Germany.



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