Election MRP poll: Result from UK mega-poll IN FULL – Tory lead narrows ahead of vote


The YouGov’s official MRP poll, regarded as the most reliable election poll, was released on Tuesday. YouGov’s MRP poll published in November showed Boris Johnson would secure a majority and now the latest poll has been published. But what exactly do the results reveal?

What is the result from the latest MRP poll?

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has received an election boost as one of the UK’s most reliable polls suggests a majority in the Tories favour.

According to the MRP poll, published jointly by The Times newspaper and Sky News, the Tories could win 339 seats out of the 650 seats in Parliament, representing a vote share of 43 percent.

This would give Mr Johnson a majority of 28, narrowing from the 68 seat lead the previous YouGov MRP poll suggested.

The poll also showed the Labour Party would win 231 seats, which would be down one seat from the 2017 election, representing 34 percent of the vote.

Labour is now due to secure 18 seats that it was on course to lose under the first MRP prediction.

The party’s average position has improved by six points in Labour marginals that voted Remain but only two points in its constituencies that voted heavily to Leave, suggesting it is benefiting from tactical voting.

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In the latest MRP from YouGov, the market research company predicted the Conservative Party would take a substantial lead with a majority of 33 seats, 68 seats more than all of parties in Parliament.

Polling guru Sir John Curtice endorsed the results claiming the results were entirely “plausible”.

Sir John told The Times: “The technique came to be regarded as a “mystic Meg.””

Now, YouGov has published its second multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) poll which was collected over a period of seven. 

YouGov interviewed approximately 100,000 panellists about their voting intentions in the 2019 General Election.

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YouGov’s director of political research Anthony Wells said: “Based on the model we cannot rule out a hung parliament.”

The finding sets the last 24 hours of the five-week campaign alight.

When the survey was carried out two weeks ago it showed Mr Johnson on course for a comfortable majority of 68.

Mr Johnson’s special adviser Dominic Cummings warned voters the election was “much tighter” than the polls suggested.

On his blog Mr Cummings wrote that “Brexit is in danger” and therefore he was sending a “bat signal”.

He wrote: “You will see many polls in the coming days. Some will say Boris will win.

“Trust me, as someone who has worked on lots of campaigns, things are MUCH tighter than they seem and there is a very real possibility of a hung parliament. 

“Without a majority, the nightmare continues.

“ALL other MPs will gang together to stop Brexit and give EU citizens the vote. It’s that simple.”

The MRP poll uses a recently developed technique which aims to provide a more detailed prediction than standard polls.

Compared to regular polls, the MRP poll uses the poll data from around 50,000 people and the preceding seven days to estimate a model relating interview date, constituency, voter demographics, past voting behaviour, and other respondent profile variables to their current voting intentions.

Additionally, the MRP poll uses data from the UK Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study and past election results to estimate the number of each type of voter in each constituency.

In the 2017 election, the YouGov MRP poll correctly predicted Theresa May would lose her majority, despite all other polls showing the Conservatives would secure a large win.



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