Election 2019 LIVE: Boris needs just 5,186 extra votes to win majority, shock data reveals

The 10 constituencies top the Tories’ hit-list, with the tightest – Dudley North in the West Midlands – won by Labour by just 22 votes in 2017. Added together, the overall majority amounts to just 10,355 votes out of a total UK electorate of just under 46 million. If the Tories were to win 5,186 extra votes in these constituencies, in addition to the seats the party won two years ago, they could secure 327 seats – a wafer-thin majority of two.

The 10 seats, in alphabetical order, are: Ashfield (Labour majority 441); Bedford (789); Bishops Auckland (502); Blackpool South (2,523); Crewe and Nantwich (48); Wrexham (1,832); Newcastle under Lyme (30); Dudley North (22); Darlington (3,280); and Stockton South (888).

The votes needed for these seats to change hands equates to 5,186 votes, which is half of the majority plus one.

The analysis shows the uphill task Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn face to replace Mr Johnson in Downing Street.

Mr Corbyn has the longest odds of any opposition leader since the 2001 general election to win a majority at this point of the campaign trail – according to betting trends analysts

The Labour leader is rated at 25/1 with most bookies to form the next government outright – and not since Tony Blair’s second election victory in 2001 have the odds been worse (50/1 for William Hague).

At this stage around two-and-a-half weeks before the polls opened, Mr Corbyn was 20/1 to win a majority against Theresa May while in 2015, Ed Miliband was actually 4/5 favourite in the betting markets over David Cameron before tailing off and handing the Tories a 12-seat majority.

JUST IN: Boris Johnson is entering an EU ‘elephant trap’


9.37am update: Lord Dubs defends Corbyn

Lord Dubs added: “Of course it’s not good enough, which is why I think the Labour Party should have moved faster.”

Questioned on Mr Corbyn’s comments on an “anti-Semitic” mural, he said: “As regards to the mural, my understanding, I found it a very shocking mural, I saw it, my understanding is that Jeremy hadn’t actually looked at it properly and made a comment which afterwards he very much regretted. And he has apologised.”

Lord Dubs added: “I think we’ve moved forward and I think the key thing is today the Labour Party is launching this race and faith manifesto and that deals with a lot of the issues we’re talking about.

“So even though the past was murky, the past wasn’t good enough, I think we’re going forward in a very positive way, and I think the Labour Party should be given credit for doing that.”

On whether Mr Corbyn is fit to be prime minister, he added: “I think he is, yes, I think he is fit to be prime minister. I do not believe he is anti-Semitic. I believe things have happened under his leadership which should have been stopped way back.

“I don’t believe he is personally anti-Semitic and I believe he will find it very, very hurtful that people accuse him of being anti-Semitic or racist or Islamophobic, he is none of those things.”

9.25am update: Chief Rabbi has gone “too far” in Corbyn criticism, says Lord Dubs

Labour peer Lord Dubs, who arrived in the UK in 1939 as a six-year-old refugee fleeing the persecution of Jews in Nazi-occupied Czechoslovakia, has said Chief Rabbi Ephraim Mirvis had “gone too far” and insisted Jeremy Corbyn is not anti-Semitic.

Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Lord Dubs said: “I think, I have a lot of respect for the Chief Rabbi, I’ve co-operated with him on campaigns on behalf of child refugees, I’ve spoken to him in many synagogues and I’ve got a lot of positive feeling about the Jewish community, but I think today the Chief Rabbi has gone too far.”

He added that Labour’s race and faith manifesto “goes a long way to meeting some of the criticisms”.

Lord Dubs said: “I think the Labour Party has been much too slow in getting to grips with this, and I’ve been critical of the Labour Party over the last two or three years, but I feel we are getting there, and I want to look at it from the point of view of where we are today and moving forward.”

He added: “And I think Jeremy Corbyn himself is personally hurt at the accusations of anti-Semitism.

“I don’t believe he is anti-Semitic, even though, under his leadership, things have happened which should have been dealt with much faster.”

9.17am update: 

Voters around the country will head to the polls in December to elect their next representative. But how will the boundary changes impact this election?

The Boundary Commission submitted its final recommendations for the new parliamentary boundaries in September 2018.

The proposals which require the backing of MPs and peers to pass into law, could see the number of MPs drop from 650 to 600. 

The Commission said it was “confident” its new map would be the best outcome for the future of parliament.

9.09am update: 

The Brexit Party election campaign began with Nigel Farage levying a threat at Boris Johnson telling the PM to drop the European Union deal and form a “leave alliance” or his party will contest every seat in the UK.

Nigel Farage launched his general election campaign saying his party is willing to contest every seat in the country unless Boris Johnson agrees to drop his deal with the EU and sign up to a “leave alliance”.

The former UKIP leader has since announced no Brexit Party MPs will stand in Tory seats, revealing his campaign strategy involves targeting 150 constituencies where his party could appeal to voters and the Tories would not be able to do so for historic and cultural reasons. has compiled a list of the key Labour Party leave targets for the Brexit Party and which seats the Conservative Party could lose.

9am update: Johnson’s Brexit deal “would destabilise Northern Ireland’s relationship with rest of UK,” says Donaldson

DUP parliamentary candidate Sir Jeffrey Donaldson has said Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal would “destabilise Northern Ireland’s relationship with the rest of the UK” and be “disadvantageous” to the Northern Ireland economy.

Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme during a break from campaignin, Sir Jeffrey added: “Clearly there isn’t a single major party in Northern Ireland that supports the Prime Minister’s Brexit deal, and that’s a major problem for us because if this deal is imposed, I believe it will create further instability and we certainly don’t need that.”

He continued: “We believe the Prime Minister needs to look again at this idea of creating a .”

On whether the deal is a threat to peace, Sir Jeffrey said: “I think it is a threat to stability, I don’t think that it’s a threat to peace per se.”

Sir Jeffrey also said: “We’ve stated that we believe a Corbyn-led Labour government would be disastrous for the UK.”

On the prospects of joining forces with a Labour government if Corbyn was not involved, he added: “It would depend on what their platform was, we’d have to look at that very carefully.”

8.50am update: Heseltine “wrong”, says Gove

Michael Gove also said he feels a “certain sense of sadness” about Lord Heseltine’s views on the Conservative Party.

Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, he added: “On this particular question, Michael, I think, advised people to vote Liberal Democrat in the European election, so in that sense he’s consistent, but I do think that he’s wrong on this.

“I think that the most important thing at this General Election is the choice between the two alternative prime ministers – Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn – and I think that Boris would undoubtedly ensure that we got Brexit done and avoid the dangers of two referendums, whereas Jeremy Corbyn, as we know by the words of the Chief Rabbi today, poses a threat to more than just our economy.”

On the chance of securing a trade deal, Mr Gove said: “First of all, we’ve heard this scepticism before, it’s the sort of default position of many commentators.

“It’s also the case that we have a Political Declaration which accompanies the Withdrawal Agreement that sets out the broad structure of the agreement that we’d want, and it’s pretty clear the sort of agreement that would work in the EU’s interests and the UK’s interests.”

8.45am update: Johnson “sinister”, says Stormzy

Speaking yesterday, Stormzy – real name Michael Ebenazer Kwadjo Omari Owuo Jr  – said it was important for voters to register by the end of Tuesday to vote.

He said: “I will be registering to vote and I will be voting for Jeremy Corbyn.

“Boris Johnson is a sinister man with a long record of lying and policies that have absolutely no regard for the people that our government should be committed to helping and empowering.”

8.40am update: Gove vs Stormzy: ‘A far better rapper than political analyst’

Tory Michael Gove has dismissed Stormzy’s criticism of Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Tuesday, saying the grime star was a far better rapper than he was a political analyst.

Stormzy, who sported a Union Jack emblazoned stab-proof vest at Glastonbury in June, has said he backs opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn and has criticised Johnson as “sinister”.

Mr Govetold Talk Radio: “I think we again know that Stormzy, when he took to the stage at Glastonbury wearing a stab vest, he made clear what his political views were then.

“He is a far, far better rapper than he is a political analyst.”

8.29am update: Labour squeeze Tory leader, shows poll

Nevertheless Labour has squeezed the Tories’ poll lead to 11 points from 18 over the last week, a survey by Kantar showed on today.

Support for Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservatives fell 2 points to 43 percent, while Labour was up five points on 32 percent.

The Liberal Democrats were down two on 14 percent, while the Brexit Party was up one on three percent.

Kantar surveyed 1,097 people online between November 21 and 25.

The poll is the second in two days to show a narrowing of the Conservatives’ lead. On Monday, an ICM poll for Reuters gave the Conservatives a seven-point lead, down from 10 points a week earlier.

Both parties have published their manifestos, setting out the policies they plan to implement if elected, since the previous Kantar and ICM polls were conducted.

8.25am update:

The Chief Rabbi has warned the “very soul of our nation” would be placed at stake if Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party wins the general election.

Ephraim Mirvis delivered the warning ahead of Britons going to the poll on December 12 that “the overwhelming majority of British Jews are gripped by anxiety”.

The shock intervention likely to derail the launch of Labour’s race and faith manifesto, which is to be released tomorrow.

Labour has been beset with complaints about anti-Semitism but Jeremy Corbyn has previously underlined it is tackling the issue by expelling members.

8.21am update: Corbyn “not fit to be Prime Minister”, says Heseltine

Lord Heseltine has said he cannot support people who are going to make the country “poorer and less influential” – singling out Labour leader Jeremy 

Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, he said Jeremy Corbyn “isn’t fit to be prime minister, he’s not going to be prime minister and you know it, I know it and every pollster reveals it”.

He added: “I think it’s much more likely – the question is not whether he can be prime minister, it’s whether he continues to lead the Labour Party by Christmas because I think there will be a great move to get rid of him.

“I think anyone who might form a temporary coalition will insist on it not being Jeremy Corbyn.”

Lord Heseltine said: “The real issue is what is at stake and it is the prosperity of this country, the world influence of this country, our relationships with our neighbours in Europe – this is transcendingly the over-arching issue at stake in this election.

“I cannot vote or support people who are going to make the country poorer and less influential – full stop, end of story.”


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