CASES of coronavirus are increasing but they are not spiralling out of control, one expert said today.
Prof Tim Spector from Kings College London said the Zoe app, which tracks around 1 million Brits’ symptoms, showed a 20 per cent rise in cases in the last week.
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Data from the Covid Symptom Study UK Infection Survey states that there are 43,569 daily cases.
The week before there were 36,251 infections each day.
The experts at King’s College also estimate that the R rate across the UK is currently at 1.1.
It is one of three major studies that track the spread of Covid-19.
Another, being carried out at Imperial College London, published findings yesterday that estimated the R rate in the UK to be 1.6.
The REACT-1 study, which tested 85,000 people between October 16 and 25 for it’s latest round, also found cases were closer to 96,000 a day.
The REACT study has tested more than 365,000 people since the start of the pandemic.
Meanwhile, the King’s College findings are compiled by analysing the data submitted by people inputting their symptoms to the app.
The third major study is the Office for National Statistic (ONS) infection survey, which today found 51,900 daily case – up 47 per cent on last week.
The ONS study found more than 568,000 people in England got infected last week.
Data from the ONS last week revealed that hat England recorded 35,000 new cases of the virus a day from October 10 to 16.
The experts at King’s College state that their data is inline with the ONS.
The latest figures from King’s College are based on 12,390 swabs taken between October 11 and 25 – as recent as Sunday.
Data from the Department of Health and Social Care today states that 23,065 people were diagnosed with the virus yesterday – a far cry from both the King’s College and Imperial Estimates.
Data from Cambridge University states that cases are at around 55,600 per day.
These estimates are from October 15 and are based on how many people are dying and how many people are travelling and interacting.
There is a stark difference between the studies and this is down to the methodology used.
Prof Spector, from King’s College London, said: “While cases are still rising across the UK, we want to reassure people that cases have not spiralled out of control, as has been recently reported from other surveys.
“We are still seeing a steady rise nationally, doubling every four weeks, with the possible exception of Scotland which may be showing signs of a slow down.
“With a million people reporting weekly, we have the largest national survey and our estimates are in line with the ONS survey.”
He said cases of the virus are rising but deaths are still average for the season.
The ONS states that the number of deaths in hospitals remained below the five-year average in Week 42 with 184 fewer deaths, while the number of deaths in private homes and care homes were above the five-year average at 776 and 90 more deaths respectively.
Prof Spector added: “Data on Covid-19 can be confusing for the public and we can’t rely simply on confirmed cases or daily deaths, without putting them into context.
“As we become citizen scientists it’s important to look at multiple sources to get a broader view.”
Data from the Covid Tracker app also revealed the next seven places that could be forced into Tier 3 restrictions.
Sunderland tops this week’s list followed by Newcastle upon Tyne, South Tyneside, Erewash, Stoke-on-Trent, Wolverhampton and County Durham.
Yesterday it was reported that the number of Brits who have lost their lives to coronavirus is nearing 46,000 – as another 280 people were reported to have died yesterday.
The figures are released by NHS England every day and yesterday revealed that 23,065 more people had tested positive for the deadly bug.
In total, 45,955 people have died with Covid since the UK’s outbreak began.
However, there are encouraging signs the number of new infections is slowing.
Yesterday was the first time the daily number of cases has fallen on the amount recorded the week before since September 28.
Despite rising cases, the Government looks set to continue resisting calls for a new national lockdown.
But the minister admitted the virus “is in a bad place in all parts of the country” as “frustrated” Brits face grinding local measures.