health

Covid-19 hospitalisations spike by a third in a week


The number of people being hospitalised with Covid-19 in England spiked by almost a third in a week, according to official data.  

A Public Health England surveillance report revealed the weekly admission rate for the disease was 10.01 per 100,000 in the week up to October 25 — up from 7.74 the week prior, a rise of 30 per cent.

Despite a mid-September surge in infections, Britain’s hospitals enjoyed low hospital and death rates because transmission was being driven by young people who are resistant to Covid-19’s most severe symptoms.

But the rise in hospital admissions is a stark reminder the disease is now rife among older demographics, who are vulnerable to falling seriously unwell.  

The surveillance report — published every week — shows Covid-19 case rates rose by a quarter in the past week among over-70s and over-80s, who are the most at-risk groups. 

There are fears that hospitals could be overwhelmed once again and Boris Johnson is under growing pressure from scientists for a national ‘circuit breaker’ lockdown or a return to the kind of restrictions the country faced in spring.

It’s thought that a bad flu season that results in lots of hospital admissions could tip the health service over the edge. 

But, more promising statistics from the PHE report show just 0.03 per 100,000 people are being admitted with influenza and a record-number of Brits have been vaccinated against the bug for this time of year.

The number of people being hospitalised with coronavirus in England has spiked by almost a third in a week. The weekly admission rate for the disease was 10.01 per 100,000 in the week up to October 25 - up from 7.74 the week prior

The number of people being hospitalised with coronavirus in England has spiked by almost a third in a week. The weekly admission rate for the disease was 10.01 per 100,000 in the week up to October 25 – up from 7.74 the week prior

Northern parts of the country are still experiencing the highest volume of new patients as they continue to bear the brunt of the second wave

Northern parts of the country are still experiencing the highest volume of new patients as they continue to bear the brunt of the second wave

PHE found that infections were rising for all age groups except 10 to 19 year-olds in the most recent recording period

PHE found that infections were rising for all age groups except 10 to 19 year-olds in the most recent recording period

In the weekly national Influenza and Covid-19 surveillance report, PHE found that infections were rising for all age groups except 10 to 19 year-olds in the most recent recording period.

The highest rates are currently among 20 to 29-year-olds, where the rate was 333.2 cases per 100,000 people in the week to October 25, up from 306.6 in the previous week. 

The rate among 30 to 39-year-olds was 274.1 per 100,000, up from 213.8.

UK is OUT-PACING SAGE’s ‘worst case scenario’ projections of 85,000 Covid-19 deaths 

Britain’s second coronavirus wave is already on track to surpass the Government’s ‘worst case scenario’ projection of 85,000 deaths, concerning data suggests.

In a newly-published leaked paper that was circulated through Downing Street over summer, SAGE – the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies – warned that daily Covid-19 fatalities could rise to as many as 100 a day by the end of October.

But there are at least twice as many Covid-19 deaths occurring in the UK already, with the seven-day rolling average number of victims currently at 230. There were 280 fatalities recorded today and 310 on Wednesday.

The SAGE projection also forecast about 18,000 new infections by this time of the year and fewer than 500 daily hospital admissions. However, the current reality of the UK’s second wave is even more dire than the scientists predicted.

By October 21, the most recently published NHS figures showed there were 1,227 Covid-19 sufferers admitted to hospitals, more than double the ‘worst case scenario’. There are, on average, 22,125 new people infected with the disease every day, according to official figures from the Department of Health.

But this is widely considered a vast underestimate of the true number of cases. The central testing programme is missing asymptomatic and mild cases of the virus, which make up the vast majority of infections, and is struggling to ramp up swabbing capacity needed to catch these people.

For the 70-79 age group, the rate was 110.0, up from 88.0, while for people aged 80 and over it was 156.7, up from 125.6.

It comes as worrying data shows Britain’s second coronavirus wave is already on track to surpass the Government’s ‘worst case scenario’ projection of 85,000 deaths.

In a newly-published leaked paper that was circulated through Downing Street over summer, SAGE – the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies – warned that daily Covid-19 fatalities could rise to as many as 100 a day by the end of October.

But there are at least twice as many Covid-19 deaths occurring in the UK currently, with the seven-day rolling average number of victims currently at 230. There were 280 fatalities recorded today and 310 on Wednesday.

The SAGE projection also forecast about 18,000 new infections by this time of the year and fewer than 500 daily hospital admissions. 

However, the current reality of the UK’s second wave is even more dire than the scientists predicted.

By October 21, the most recently published NHS figures showed there were 1,227 Covid-19 sufferers admitted to hospitals, more than double the ‘worst case scenario’. 

There are, on average, 22,125 new people infected with the disease every day, according to official figures from the Department of Health.

But this is widely considered a vast underestimate of the true number of cases. The central testing programme is missing asymptomatic and mild cases of the virus, which make up the vast majority of infections, and is struggling to ramp up swabbing capacity needed to catch these people.

An Imperial College London study commissioned by the Government yesterday estimated the real number of daily infections was closer to 100,000 – which is more than five times greater than SAGE’s prediction.  For comparison, the Government announced 23,065 new cases today.

Boris Johnson is under growing pressure from scientists for a national ‘circuit breaker’ lockdown or a return to the kind of restrictions the country faced in spring.  

Already, almost 30million people in England are living in tougher restrictions than the rest of the country and 8million are in the harshest of Mr Johnson’s three-tier lockdown system. 

And it appears increasingly likely that 6million more residents in the West Midlands, North East and West Yorkshire will be dragged into a Tier Three lockdown this week, as Number 10 continues to rely on its ‘whack-a-mole’ strategy to try to contain the disease.



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