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CDC predicts Covid-19 cases could drop by up to 75% next month, crediting vaccine rollout


The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) predict COVID-19 cases and deaths in the United States will fall significantly over the next month.

In forecasts published this week, the agency projected.four straight weeks of declining cases, ending with as low as 38,000 cases in the week ending in June 19, representing a 75% decline compared to to around 150,000 over the past seven days.

It would a continuation of a trend in recent weeks with coronavirus cases falling by 60 percent from 400,000 per week in mid-April.

The forecast also predicts that deaths will decline to as few as 900 deaths in the week ending in June 19, an 70 percent decline from the current average around 3,000 deaths per week.

The agency credits the vaccine for the lowering case and death rates, with 60 percent of adults having received at least one shot so far, though some areas with a less successful rollout. like Mississippi, are dealing with an increase in cases.

CDC projections show a massive decrease in cases and deaths in the coming weeks as more

CDC projections show a massive decrease in cases and deaths in the coming weeks as more 

The CDC’s projections assume that current levels of safety precautions and social distancing will continue, and that the vaccination rate will hold steady as well.

Their model is created by aggregating multiple projections from different universities and data centers, which are created based on recent trends and expectations of public behavior.  

President Joe Biden has set a target of getting at least 70 percent of Americans vaccinated by July 4.

Dr Anthony Fauci said last week that if that goal is reached, future surges of the virus can be prevented nationwide.

While cases are slowing, the CDC still labels some states as having high risk of community transmission. 

Mississippi is the only state in the country where new cases have increased for two consecutive weeks, it also is the state with the lowest total vaccination rate at only 33 percent. 

Covid cases in the state are still relatively low, though, at less than 2,000 new cases every week. 

Their neighbor, Alabama, has the second lowest vaccination rate in the country, at only 35 percent, also dealt with a surge in Covid cases earlier this month.

The state kept cases under control since then, though, dropping from about 8,000 cases in a single week to under 2,000 cases a week currently, a 75 percent decrease. 

Getting the remaining unvaccinated population in America vaccinated has been a problem for health officials in recent weeks, and it places like Mississippi where the vaccine rate is very low, it may be contributing to an increase in cases

Getting the remaining unvaccinated population in America vaccinated has been a problem for health officials in recent weeks, and it places like Mississippi where the vaccine rate is very low, it may be contributing to an increase in cases

Michigan is yet to fully recover from a massive Covid surge in April, and the vaccination rate in the state has stagnated.

While other states have used vaccine lotteries and other financial incentives to get residents vaccinated, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said that state law prevented a similar system from being put in place in her state.

The state’s Department of Health reports that over 35,000 doses of the vaccines have been spoiled in Michigan since the end of March. 

Cases are on the way down in Michigan, though, and they will likely also drop as the rest of the country does. 

Michigan is recorded just under 7,000 cases over the past week, after recording nearly 50,000 a week at some points in April, an 86 percent decrease in cases. 

Washington is experiencing a fourth wave of the pandemic, as the state weathers the storm that began in late April.

Cases in the state are falling once again though, under 8,000 cases recorded over the past seven days, and the exceptional vaccine rollout – where 55 percent of residents have been vaccinated in the state – could be to credit for it. 

While cases are falling, and the vaccine rollout is helping prevent large outbreaks like the nation saw last year, some fear that herd immunity may not be reached in the United States.

According to data from the Kaiser Family Foundation, around 20 percent of Americans either will not get the vaccine or will only get the vaccine if required to do so.    

Health experts predict it will take 80 percent of the population to get vaccinated in order to reach herd immunity. 

 



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