Boris’ predicted majority plunges from 80 to just 12 seats amid fears of Theresa May 2017 style election collapse

BORIS Johnson’s predicted Commons majority has been cut from 80 to just 12 MPs, raising fears of a 2017-style collapse in the Tory lead.

New polling shows Labour eating into the Conservatives lead in the same way they did after Theresa May’s disastrous manifesto launch at the last election.

 Boris Johnson is still set for a majority but nothing like the 80 seats earlier predicted


Boris Johnson is still set for a majority but nothing like the 80 seats earlier predictedCredit: AFP or licensors

The new study of 10,000 voters by Electoral Calculus uses socio-economic and past voting data to create a picture of each individual constituency.

The data has Tories on 41.9 per cent, down from 43 per cent this time last week, with Labour up from 29.9 per cent to 32.3 per cent.

That would give the Conservatives a predicted majority of just 12 with 331 seats – down 24 – compared to Labour on 235 seats – up 33.

That means the Conservatives’ lead is below 10 per cent for the first time in the election campaign.

Jeremy Corbyn and Labour are closing the gap on the Conservatives in the same way they did to Mrs May after her the manifesto launch ‘dementia tax’ fiasco as well as refusal to appear TV debates.

The study also shows the Lib Dems, who have been hoping for a bounce from Remainer votes after pledging to scrape Article 50, have fallen from 15.1 per cent to 13.8 per cent.



Electoral Calculus founder Martin Baxter said the shrinking Tory lead could explain why the PM used a speech to appeal to working-class Brexit votes with pledges on immigration and state aid to protect jobs.

“He is going out for a working class Brexit demographic with the calculation that there are still some votes in the Brexit Party and Leave votes in the Conservative Party,” he told the Telegraph.

“Meanwhile, Labour are continuing gradually to squeeze the Lib Dems and the Greens.”

The 80 seat lead was predicted in poll produced for anti-Brexit group Best for Britain.

Earlier this week, an YouGov MRP poll for The Times predicted the Tories are on for a 68-seat majority.

The pollsters are the only one to predict Theresa May would lose her majority and forecast Mr Johnson will win 359 seats in a triumphant return to No 10, up 42 on the 2017 result.

Jeremy Corbyn‘s Labour Party is poised for disaster and will win 211 seats, down 51 from two years ago, when the country goes to the polls on December 12.

But the margin of victory is only predicted to be five per cent – meaning just a few percent loss in the polls could spell disaster.

 Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party are beginning to chip away at the Tory lead


Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party are beginning to chip away at the Tory leadCredit: PA:Press Association
Rebecca Long-Bailey and Nicola Sturgeon blasted for ‘scare-mongering’ NHS claims


Leave a Reply

This website uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you accept our use of cookies.  Learn more